That time we predicted the election

So it's been a few months since the election, but for some of us the scars are still visible. It was looooong, and sort of a slow and boring slow motion car crash. Yet, it was fun in a kind of demented way as I played a lot with shape files and the ABS, and generally learnt to dislike the way the AEC handles a lot of things (the rude-ish emails about information requests - I get that in an election you must feel like you are under siege, but I spoke to many nice ABS people during this period who were probably fielding the same sorts of desperate questions from newsrooms about electorates, and boundaries, and postcodes and merging regional data sets based with new electoral boundary information and post codes and COULD IT BE DONE? ...etc)

Anyhow, there was this weird moment a day or two before the election where I searched for every seat-based poll and updated a file that Greg Earl had started, and one of the scenarios that came out was a hung parliament which seemed really wild, but if you didn't look at a national swing, and instead state and seat based swings, it wasn't actually in the realm of impossibility. It was actually a real outcome. On election night, I did a small fistpump, not for the ALP but for the brief moment that we picked it. 

So to have this proof I really wanted to post this here, to prove that for a little while, we actually predicted the election outcome ...until all the postal votes rolled in of course and the NLP got a majority ;-)

This was team work, with the interactive designed by Les Hewart, data gathering and initial graphic prototyping by me, and analysis and commentary by Ed Tadros and Greg Earl. Nice also to be in a graphic in a Laura Tingle article too.